2016

The Kigali Correction

Nearly 200 nations agreed to phase down hydrofluorocarbons, a potent greenhouse gas, in a rare and significant amendment to the Montreal Protocol.

October 15Original articlein the voice of EXISTENTIAL
Montreal Protocol
Montreal Protocol

Diplomats meeting in Kigali, Rwanda, reached an agreement to amend the 1987 Montreal Protocol. The original treaty successfully phased out chlorofluorocarbons to repair the ozone layer. Its replacement chemicals, hydrofluorocarbons or HFCs, were harmless to ozone but discovered to be intensely potent greenhouse gases, sometimes thousands of times more effective at trapping heat than carbon dioxide. The Kigali Amendment targeted these climate-damaging substitutes. It mandated a staggered schedule: wealthy nations would begin an HFC phase-down in 2019, with most developing countries following by 2024 and a few by 2028.

The amendment represented a pragmatic fix to an unintended consequence. Environmental policy had created a new problem while solving an old one. Kigali was an acknowledgment that planetary systems are interconnected; a solution for the stratosphere could not poison the troposphere. The agreement leveraged the Montreal Protocol’s existing enforcement and funding mechanisms, avoiding the need to build a new, untested treaty apparatus.

Its impact is projected to be substantial. Scientists estimate the HFC phase-down could avert up to 0.5 degrees Celsius of global warming by the end of the century. This makes it one of the single most consequential actions for meeting the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement, which was adopted the previous year. The work was technical and unglamorous, a matter of adjusting chemical formulas and refrigeration standards.

Kigali demonstrated that international environmental governance could learn from its mistakes. It showed that a treaty could evolve, that a system designed to protect a single atmospheric layer could be retooled to address the entire climate system. The amendment treated the atmosphere as a single, integrated entity requiring comprehensive care.